HomeForex TradingFX Play of the Day Recaps: July 31 – Aug. 3, 2023

FX Play of the Day Recaps: July 31 – Aug. 3, 2023

It was a combined week for our methods as we took on a risk-on bias on the excessive likelihood we’d see additional indicators of a peak within the world price hike cycle.

However broad threat sentiment was internet destructive this week, and it wasn’t till we switched our stance that we noticed a few arguably optimistic outcomes from Wednesday and Thursday discussions.

EUR/AUD 30-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV

On Monday, we determined to do work on EUR/AUD forward of the quick approaching financial coverage assertion from the Reserve Financial institution of Australia.

Market expectations proper earlier than the discharge shifted hawkish from a 4.10% maintain to a 25 bps enhance. and with Eurozone PMIs more likely to disappoint and China just lately saying stimulus measures, we thought the higher finish vary check on EUR/AUD might attract short-term sellers.

Our technique was to attend for the RBA occasion, however EUR/AUD moved shortly decrease on Monday, over 150 pips from our technique dialogue value earlier than discovering a backside across the 1.6350 minor psychological deal with. This may occasionally have been because of the sudden shift in expectations to a price hike and/or improved Chinese language PMI information, presumably coupled with weak financial information from Germany to affect the euro.

On Tuesday, we lastly get to the RBA assertion, holding charges unexpectedly to Monday’s expectations, and the RBA signaled to the market future coverage changes will probably be information dependent. Primarily based on the response within the Aussie, the market took this growth as basically “don’t anticipate additional hikes for now.” This successfully negated the concept of additional strikes decrease in EUR/AUD.

This growth cued up our bullish technical setup dialogue on EUR/AUD, which was to look at for an upside break of the prime quality on the situation of a surprisingly dovish RBA occasion. It seems like this setup did play out, possible supported by broad risk-off vibes, drawing patrons all through the week to push EUR/AUD as much as the 1.6750 space earlier than discovering short-term resistance.

AUD/JPY 30-min Forex Chart by TV

AUD/JPY 30-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV

On Tuesday, we checked out AUD/JPY after the RBA’s dovish assertion pushed the pair decrease, and based mostly on earlier RBA statements, we thought that there was a risk of the market shifting previous this occasion shortly.

We additionally thought that IF broad threat sentiment moved extra positively (a risk if merchants began pricing in a near-end to the present price hike cycle), short-term patrons may even see the dip as a chance to play that sluggish grind greater within the pair (minus the BOJ occasion associated volatility from final week).

Our affirmation sign was if bullish reversal patterns fashioned across the confluence of technical arguments across the 95.00 main psychological space, then the uptrend might doubtlessly resume.

Sadly, these situations weren’t met as threat sentiment leaned bearish on Tuesday and gained traction on Wednesday as a consequence of Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. long-term debt. Japanese yen bulls strongly took again management as a consequence of risk-off situations, even shrugging off shock bond-buying operations from the Financial institution of Japan.

Each our technical and basic situations didn’t play out to set off potential threat administration motion on AUD/JPY.

GBP/JPY 30-min Forex Chart by TV

GBP/JPY 30-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV

After a number of days of consolidation, Guppy caught our consideration on Wednesday after it broke under consolidation help patterns, a transfer possible sparked by the destructive shift in broad threat sentiment, once more possible ignited by the above-mentioned information of the U.S. credit standing downgrade by Fitch, which had foreign exchange merchants shifting broadly into protected havens just like the Japanese yen.

Our value expectations had been fairly easy in that this draw back break on basic information might attract sellers and doubtlessly push GBP/JPY decrease to the subsequent space of curiosity round 181.90.

We thought there could be revenue taking there to spark a bounce to 182.64 (S1 pivot space), which did play out and shocking drew in a ton of sellers into a powerful momentum transfer to the draw back on Thursday as risk-off vibes grew.

The transfer bottomed out across the Financial institution of England financial coverage assertion, the place they hiked rates of interest by 25 bps as anticipated to five.25%, however warned that top rate of interest situations could persist for someday.

Total, this dialogue was very efficient and certain result in a optimistic end result, particularly for the nimble threat managers on the market.

EUR/JPY 30-min Forex Chart by TV

EUR/JPY 30-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV

On Thursday, EUR/JPY was giving merchants a consolidation breakout setup because the pair held regular in a 100 pip vary in August. Early within the Asia buying and selling session, bearish candlestick patterns appeared, suggesting that merchants had been possible to enter full bear mode.

This was possible a mix of catalysts, together with weak inflation/development indicators from Europe might put strain on the Euro, and underlying shopping for help for the yen triggered by the BOJ final week after they raised the higher limits of their bond shopping for program.

Danger sentiment was additionally possible a contributor, which has been leaning destructive after Fitch downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit score grade from AAA to AA+ on Wednesday’s, additional supporting the yen over the euro this week.

In our dialogue, we famous how volatility shortly picked up for the yen after the BOJ initiated a second unscheduled bond-buying operation after Japan’s 10-year bond yields hit a contemporary nine-year excessive. This prompted a spike decrease within the yen, however consideration shortly turned again to broad risk-off sentiment, evidenced by merchants dashing into protected havens throughout the London buying and selling session.

It was really the beginning of a giant intraday threat off transfer, sufficient to assist the bears break the consolidation help and push EUR/JPY to not solely our first help goal space round 156.12, but additionally our second goal help space round 155.56 earlier than the bulls took again management.  Sadly, for these searching for additional draw back, that was the underside of the week for EUR/JPY.

Since that check of our second goal, EUR/JPY has grinded greater to possible shut above our dialogue value, making this a possible optimistic end result solely for individuals who managed threat with the concept of taking earnings and/or lowering threat as every of the targets had been hit.

This content material is strictly for informational functions solely and doesn’t represent as funding recommendation. Buying and selling any monetary market includes threat. Please learn our Danger Disclosure to be sure you perceive the dangers concerned.

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