HomeForex TradingFX Weekly Recap: August 14 – 18, 2023

FX Weekly Recap: August 14 – 18, 2023

Stronger-than-expected U.S. and U.Ok. knowledge releases supported hawkish biases for the Fed and BOE, boosting each the U.S. greenback and British pound to the highest of this week’s rankings.

In the meantime, China’s progress issues saved a lid on the demand for commodity-related currencies like AUD and NZD, in addition to fueling threat aversion habits this week.

Missed the main foreign exchange headlines? Right here’s what it is advisable to know from final week’s FX motion:

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The U.S. greenback chopped round internet inexperienced in first half of the week as optimism for a “gentle touchdown” within the U.S. obtained combined in with issues over China’s progress.

The secure haven actually began gaining floor on Wednesday when the FOMC assembly minutes confirmed a consensus on the 25bps July charge hike AND famous the members’ bias for additional tightening amidst upside inflation dangers.

The Buck ended within the inexperienced and gained essentially the most towards comdolls like AUD, NZD, and CAD however bowed right down to GBP over hawkish BOE expectations.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Retail Gross sales for July 2023: 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast/earlier); Core Retail Gross sales had been up 1.0% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m earlier)

Import Costs for July 2023: 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m earlier)

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated “I’m not able to say that we’re finished” elevating charges; including that the Fed can “take somewhat bit extra time, get some knowledge” earlier than deciding whether or not they should do extra

Industrial Manufacturing for July: 1.0% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.8% m/m earlier)

FOMC assembly minutes: “Most individuals continued to see important upside dangers to inflation, which might require additional tightening of financial coverage” however “a pair” of individuals pushed to depart charges unchanged in July.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for August: 12.0 (-8.0 forecast; -13.5 earlier); Employment index fell from -1.0 to -6.0; Costs Paid Index rose from 9.5 to twenty.8

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for August: -19.0 (4.0 forecast, 1.1 earlier)

NAHB Housing Market Index for August fell to 50.0 vs. 56.0 forecast/earlier

Mortgage demand falls as the typical 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage will increase to 7.16% vs. 7.09% the earlier week.

Constructing Permits for July: 0.1% m/m (1.1% m/m forecast; -3.7% earlier); Housing Begins had been up 3.9% m/m (1.7% m/m forecast; -11.7% m/m earlier)

Weekly Preliminary Jobless Claims: 239.0k (241.0k forecast; 250.0k earlier); persevering with claims rose to 1.716M from 1.684M

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of EUR vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

There weren’t a variety of top-tier experiences printed from the Eurozone, so EUR largely traded as a countercurrency to broader FX themes this week.

The higher-than-expected Eurozone GDP and sentiment experiences in addition to the euro’s lowkey secure haven standing within the area in all probability helped the widespread forex finish the week increased towards the comdolls. EUR nonetheless traded decrease towards the robust GBP and secure havens like USD, CHF, and JPY, nonetheless.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

German ZEW Financial Sentiment Index for August: -12.3 (-15.0 forecast; -14.7 earlier)

Euro Space Flash GDP estimate for Q2 2023: +0.3% q/q vs. 0.0% q/q earlier

Euro Space Industrial Manufacturing for June 2023: 0.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m; 0.0% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Germany Wholesale Costs for July 2023: -2.8percenty/y (-2.5% y/y forecast; -2.9% y/y earlier); largely pushed by the -20.8% y/y drop in wholesale petroleum merchandise

Flash Euro Space employment estimate at 0.2% q/q vs. 0.5% q/q earlier

Euro Space CPI for July 2023: -0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m earlier)

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of GBP vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The British pound was THE strongest forex this week due to the most recent U.Ok.wages and core inflation figures giving room for extra BOE charge hikes. Some are even pricing in a 6.00% official financial institution charge for the central financial institution this yr!

GBP was already making increased highs and better lows towards the comdolls within the first half of the week, however the forex’s positive aspects grew to become extra broad-based after the U.Ok. printed its hawkish knowledge factors and topping out on Thursday.

On Friday, a weaker-than-expected retail gross sales replace from the U.Ok. had merchants taking revenue forward of the weekend.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Common weekly earnings together with bonuses up by 8.2% y/y within the three months to June, marking the quickest enhance since July 2021

Headline inflation cooled from 7.9% y/y to six.8% y/y as anticipated in July; core inflation remained at 6.9% y/y (vs. 6.8% y/y anticipated)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

The unemployment charge rose from 4.0% to 4.2% within the three months to June, the best since October 2021.

The jobless claimant rely change up by 29K in July (vs. 19.6K anticipated, 16.2K earlier)

Producer enter costs fell by 3.3% y/y in July, down from June’s 2.2% y/y decline. Output (manufacturing facility) costs additionally fell by 0.8% y/y from a 0.3% y/y enhance in June.

U.Ok. retail gross sales slipped -1.2% m/m in July vs. estimated -0.6% decline and earlier 0.6% uptick (downgraded from initially reported 0.7% achieve)

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CHF vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

The Swiss franc was everywhere as a countercurrency within the first half of the week as merchants priced in top-tier experiences from different economies.

CHF didn’t see noticeable developments till Wednesday when fears over China’s progress accelerated comdoll weaknesses whereas hawkish expectations for the Fed and the BOE boosted the greenback and the pound.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Producer worth index slipped by 0.1% m/m in July (vs. 0.2% anticipated, 0.0% earlier)

Swiss Industrial Manufacturing for Q2 2023: -0.8% y/y (2.5% y/y forecast; 4.2% y/y earlier)

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of AUD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Between China’s progress fears, Australia’s knowledge misses, and issues for a high-interest charge setting, it was an unlucky week to be an Aussie bull.

After all, it didn’t assist that the RBA’s assembly minutes confirmed that members already consider that they will obtain their inflation goal “with the money charge staying at its current stage.

AUD was buying and selling in extensive ranges on Monday and Tuesday however finally broke decrease on Wednesday and made new weekly lows on Thursday earlier than bearish sentiment exhausted after the flush decrease sparked by the weaker-than-expected Australian employment replace.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Melbourne Institute Main Index lifted barely from -0.67% to -0.60% in July; “Under-trend progress momentum set to increase into 2024.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Over the weekend, China’s largest non-public property developer Nation Backyard suspended the buying and selling of 11 of its onshore bonds beginning Monday.

PBoC unexpectedly minimize the speed on 401B CNY ($55.25B) price of one-year MLF loans by 15bps to 2.50%, its second minimize in three months.

China’s mounted asset investments had been up by 3.4% within the first seven months of 2023 from the identical interval a yr earlier (vs. 3.8% anticipated and former)

RBA August assembly minutes: There’s a “credible path again to the inflation goal with the money charge staying at its current stage

PBoC injected 297B CNY money through seven-day reverse repurchase contracts; units yuan fixing that was 783 pips stronger than the typical estimate

Australia’s wage worth index grew by 3.6% y/y in Q2 (vs. 3.7% anticipated, 3.4% earlier) supporting one other RBA charge hike pause in September

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of CAD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

A warmer-than-expected Canadian inflation report didn’t do the Canadian greenback favors this week because the comdoll nonetheless moved to the tune of threat sentiment.

That’s, CAD traded in extensive ranges earlier than broader FX themes like anti-comdoll, pro-USD and pro-GBP developments dictated the Loonie’s worth motion.

CAD seems to be set to finish the week increased towards AUD and NZD however decrease towards the secure havens, GBP, and even EUR.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

CPI for July: 0.6% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m earlier); core CPI was 0.5% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m earlier)

Wholesales commerce for June: 2.8% m/m (-4.4% m/m forecast; 2.9% m/m earlier)

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Housing Begins for July fell -10% y/y to 255.0k (243.0k forecast; 283.5k earlier)

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of NZD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Very like the Australian greenback, NZD traded in extensive ranges within the first half of the week earlier than threat aversion and Chinese language progress issues dragged the comdoll decrease.

Kiwi seems to be set to finish the week decrease throughout the board besides towards the Aussie.

NZD is barely a tiny bit stronger than AUD this week however that’s in all probability due to the RBNZ’s “hawkish maintain” determination towards the RBA’s not-so-hawkish assembly minutes.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Abroad customer arrivals had been up by 11.3% in June after three consecutive months of decline

New Zealand eliminated the final of its COVID restrictions together with obligatory masks and isolation for many who examined constructive.

As anticipated, the RBNZ saved its official money charge unchanged at 5.5% in August, and stated charges “want to stay at a restrictive stage for the foreseeable future

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

BusinessNZ companies index additional contracted from 49.6 to 47.8 in July; “the outcomes all level to a pointy drop in demand in July, considerably accelerating the slowing pattern that had been evident for a lot of months

World Dairy Costs Index for Aug. 15, 2023: -7.4% to $2.875

RBNZ Gov. Orr stated delicate inflation is the “naked minimal we have to see” earlier than contemplating charge cuts. He added that “We don’t really feel a rush to be altering charges anytime quickly

JPY Pairs

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV

Overlay of JPY vs. Main Currencies Chart by TV

Talks of a “YENtervention” saved a lid on JPY’s positive aspects and even impressed downswings early within the week.

The yen finally behaved as a secure haven although. That’s, it closed increased towards the comdolls and EUR whereas taking a backseat to the hawkish central financial institution expectations that drove the U.S. greenback and British pound increased this week.

🟢 Bullish Headline Arguments

Industrial output revised increased from 2.0% to 2.4% m/m in June (vs. -2.2% in Could)

GDP grew by 1.5% q/q in Q2 (vs. 0.8% anticipated, 0.7% earlier); annual GDP was up by 6.0% (vs. 3.6% earlier) as auto exports and vacationer arrivals helped offset slowing client restoration

Japanese nationwide core CPI slowed from 3.3% y/y to three.1% as anticipated in July, as unit labor prices are barely growing

Japan companies inflation rose to 2% in July for the primary time in 30 years, elevating the argument for coverage normalization.

🔴 Bearish Headline Arguments

Japan Commerce Steadiness for July: -78.7B (26.0B forecast; 43.1B earlier)

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